A post by Pat
It’s worse than lies, damn lies and statistics, it’s demographics. You are nothing more than your age, income, race, education and address. The reliance on demographic analysis by politicians is anathema to democratic principles. It is a marketing approach to elections. As a result we get packaged candidates and a balkanized citizenry. If the objective of this analysis was to educate politicians in a way to better serve all, that would be OK. Instead, self-serving politicians study demographics to calculate their best play to snare a chunk of power.
Michael Barone looked at his charts and numbers and decided the Republican party should choose to go after “upscale” voters. That doesn’t mean you if you are a Palin supporter or pro-life. Barone thinks Sarah could be a credible presidential candidate in the future. However, her appeal is to cultural conservatives, rural and small-town voters and the less-educated, not the kind of people worth the Republican Party’s effort according to the gods of the charts.
I think there can be a reasonable debate on the issue of abortion based on philosophical differences. Debates about what we think are at the core of democracy. The other stuff is cold impersonal data.
You don’t hear Democrats talking about the “downscale” voter in their game strategy. They score points by claiming to be the champion of the little guy and “working families”. The Republicans think they’ll gain an advantage by shunning people who speak with a drawl, go to church a lot, or get their hands dirty at work. Perhaps it isn’t demographic analysis driving the Republican makeover debate after all. Maybe it’s their natural aristocratic snobbery.
The Republican idea of the grassroots conservative?
The debate among Republicans is whether to go after downscale or upscale voters. Those who argue for going downscale usually have a 2012 candidate in mind: Sarah Palin. She has an undoubted appeal to such voters and revved up part of the Republican base — cultural conservatives, and rural and small-town voters — throughout the campaign. Despite the scorn the media heaped on her, she has excellent political instincts and seems capable of developing the knowledge base that would make her a credible presidential candidate in the future.
But my examination of the exit poll results and county-by-county election returns has led me to conclude tentatively that going upscale is the right move. As David Frum has pointed out, we’re going to have more well-educated and millennial-generation voters in the future and fewer less-educated and Baby Boomers (among whom McCain ran even).
Going upscale also means downplaying the cultural issues that were an important reason for Republican victories from 1980 to 2004.
No, I don’t have a candidate in mind, and I don’t think Republicans can abandon cultural conservatives altogether. But upscale seems to me to be the way to go.
I think there will be a lot of blue blood on the floor when it’s over.
Who won the election for BO? Who were the excited ones, giddy about having ‘one of us’ in office? Who believed the promises of a better life?
In order to re-take leadership, the GOP best remember who makes this country of ours work. The little guy, the guy who works hard for a living and only wants the freedom to do so. The military who believe they are doing the right thing by defending our country. The folks with religious values upon which our country is based.
These are the people who see the money folks as ‘business as usual’ folks who don’t have to worry about healthcare, the next meal, will their car last until it is paid off and can they afford the gas to use that car.
Sarah did excite the conservative little guy because she ISN’T ‘upscale’, as the flap about the clothing showed.
I suggest the GOP re-think about what it is they and the voters really want as a leader for our country.
You know, I just find that kind of thing so offensive. I’m not a Republican (I’m affiliated with no party now…former very lib Dem), but I tend to vote conservative these days.
The idea that rural folks are a bunch of uneducated hicks is so outdated. You’d be surprised at how many farmers actually have college educations.
I’m not rural anymore (I wish I were), but that’s my background. And I’m very well educated and probably have a lot more “culture” than most city folks.
I also happen to love Sarah Palin, despite the fact that I’m pro-choice and don’t go to church.
This view that conservatives are a bunch of hillbillies needs to go. As does the view that hillbillies are a bad thing. Swap those labels – rural, hayseed, redneck, hillbilly – with black, and see how far that gets you!
Good post, Pat.
Juli
Sure we can move towards the left, sure we can abandon our roots to win, but what do we win?Who do we become? Watered down almost democrats? Palin is the future TeamSarah.org, SarahPac.com- are the future…not namsy pansy Mccain types, or Kathleen Parker types, we are not NE Elitists- we are the party of values, beliefs
Go git ‘em, Sarah! Yeehaw!
Seriously though- It is time that we had a candidate who has come up from the ranks, instead of one who has been born and bred to enter the political class. I’m not just talking about the Kennedys, Cuomus, and Daleys- That goes for the Bushes and Rockefellers too.
What a perfect time to discuss the “upscale” democrat demographic. But first we have to explore the several sub-types in the group.
There’s the moneyed-but-dumb sort like actor Sean Penn and the crafty-but-broke kind like Rod Blagojevich. We have the brutish trust-fund babies perfectly personified by Ted Kennedy, and business-smart but otherwise doltish individuals like Ted Turner and Oprah Winfrey. We can’t overlook the just plain crooked “upscale” democrats like Congressmen Jefferson, Rangle, Frank and Senators Feinstein, Dodd, Clinton, and Boxer. Finally there is the there-because-their-constituents-are-just-so-stupid politicians like Kwame ‘n Mommy Kilpatrick, Sheila Jackson-Lee, Maxine Waters, William Jefferson, Cynthia McKinney, and perpetual DC laughingstock, Marion Berry.
Now we’re ready for a discussion of “upscale” members of each party.
To the “there-because-their-constituents-are-just-so-stupid politicians” list, I would add the name Murtha. Does the man have to run around naked & urinate on people’s children to be voted out of office?
There is nothing more upscale than basic conservative values well communicated and well executed. In terms of the panorama of human condition across the planet and across time, the American experience is upscale. Our foundations have unleashed exceptional creativity.
Let me add that Michael Barone is a media SNOB.
Conservative trailer trash UNITE! I find the prospect of being an embarrassment to upscale party members to be somewhat entertaining and mildly amusing.
Michael Barone does excellent political analysis, describing the current scene, but I think the Republicans should stay away from the advice of the demographers for candidates. Rush Limbaugh has said it before, and I think he’s right: Whenever the Republican Party has tried to pander to what it thinks the public wants to hear it has lost more often than not. It has usually won on a conservative message.
In a post-mortem analysis, the reason why McCain did as well as he did was because of Sarah Palin. Had he picked any other VP he would’ve been creamed. Why? Because McCain was not that appealing to conservatives to begin with. The Republican primaries consistently showed low voter turnout compared to the Democratic primaries, meaning that nobody really appealed to the base that well. Huckabee created some excitement, but he probably entered the race too late. Who knows if he would’ve done well in any event.
I agree with Barone that Palin needs to become more knowledgeable, more “well-rounded” if she wants to run for president. Most of all I think she needs to become more savvy, and perhaps she has with this last run. This doesn’t mean that she needs to change who she is, just grow her repertoire. She’s great on energy issues. She needs to bring that same level of knowledge to the multitude of other issues that people care about. I love her approach towards politics, and the common way she talks about issues. It shows she hasn’t forgotten where she came from.
What would we rubes do without the enlightened intellects of the likes of Michael Barone, David Frum, Chris Buckley, Kathleen Parker and Peggy Noonan telling us what conservatives want and need?!
All of their pronouncements and Machiavelian maneuvers don’t mean a damn thing. The only way out of the Republican Party’s current pathetic state is for the leadership to understand and embrace those core conservative values that Tammy talks about and that we embrace here in this forum. People with core conservative values live in small towns and big cities, are gay and straight, are religious and non-religious, male and female and black and white, among other distinctions.
If the Republican Party doesn’t get this, they will retain their current minority status in the government and will be well on their way to irrelevancy.
Great post,Pat! I was just reading an article on Yahoo News and there was something in it that disturbed me. It may or may not be true but I wanted to get your take on it. According to the article,Sarah Palin is going to meet with Mitch McConnell this weekend to talk about Alaska’s share of the stimulus package. Again,I have no idea of it’s true but if it is,I don’t think it’s a very good idea to accept money from this misguided stimulus package. How do you see it?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090131/ap_on_go_co/stimulus_gop_governors
[Storytold -- I'm sure she would oppose the bill if she were in Congress and never ask for this as President As a Governor it is her responsibility to go after a share for the people of Alaska if Washington is handing it out. It's like the flap about using pork money Ted Stevens brought into the state. It's a paradox but Sarah is acting honorably and responsibly as a Governor if she tries to get some of that loot. That's my opinion. --- Pat]
This posting is really quite irresponsible. You take a silly quote by the Michael Barone of US-News-&-World-Report, and you simply graft it onto the GOP, the entire GOP, even though there’s no mention any Repubs who agreed with Barone!
This is the kind of innuendo I’d expect from Katie Couric, not from a conservative forum.
How many “downscale” types looked at that innuendo and that caricatured cartoon, and decided to throw Obama’s electable opposition under the bus for NO reason other than guilt-by-association with Michael Barone?
Conservatives bash the entire party enough these days (for the sins of a few RINO’s who deservedly should be voted out anyway), without trying to enrage the base over a comment made by somebody (Barone) who isn’t even connected with the party.
Do you people ever want your country back from the Obamanation, or would you rather bash the GOP (including conservatives loyal to the party like Palin herself), just because you can’t grow up and get over this past election?
By Piney
“In order to re-take leadership, the GOP best remember who makes this country of ours work. The little guy, the guy who works hard for a living and only wants the freedom to do so. The military who believe they are doing the right thing by defending our country. The folks with religious values upon which our country is based.”
Yes.
This all sounds a bit familiar – Regan was just an “actor”. Sarah Palin is and can be as “upscale” as anyone, but without the condescending attitude and deception we have become so familiar with in our current, corrupt government. This is what we have come to expect. The intelligentsia covering their asses with useless rhetoric and telling us what we need — they don’t have a clue!
You want a candidate … I’d like (either way)
Rumsfeld/Bolton (bumpersticker)
Kicking A**/Taking Names
Son of career Air Force, I got my advanced degree by serving in the Navy. I’ve never attended a private school. Sarah Palin speaks common sense and Michael Barone is triangulating, not speaking to people about principles. Elitist. We need more Ben Franklin pragmatism and grass roots!
PS: Independent for life, registered GOP to vote Romney in primary. With http://www.sarahpac.com and election of Steele to RNC Chair (even with his odd statement), I’m staying on.
I have a masters degree in engineering. I am also pursuing another masters in mathematics with a goal of one day obtaining a PhD. I was a missionary living in an east African country and while there married an African woman (I am white). I teach mathematics and physics in a small private Christian school and plan to begin teaching remedial mathematics at a community college this fall. I am pro-gun even though I have never owned one and oppose all efforts to regulate firearm ownership as being unconstitutional. I also live in a university town, regularly attend church, find the theory of evolution to be too speculative and inaccurate from a scientific point of view, support higher levels of legal immigration while expelling illegals, support building a barrier along the US-Mexico border to keep out illegals, oppose abortion, am indifferent about gay/lesbian marriage, did not vote for McCain last year, and have not voted for a Democrat at any level since 1990.
So….am I upscale, downscale, or merely off the scale?
I think that Barone has fallen into a trap that left-wing extremists have laid for years. It is merely a repetition of the argument that leftists are “smart” and conservatives (meaning anyone who is not a leftist) are “stupid”, and that the only way for conservatives to join the ranks of the “smart” is to stop thinking for themselves and adopt leftist orthodoxy chapter and verse.
That is why I like blogs like Tammy Bruce, La Shawn Barber, Sister Toldjah and others. They defy the narrow, politically correct niches that leftists love to use to divide people and keep them powerless and in the dark.
I’ll take my Judeo/Christian beliefs(altho I am not religious) along with The Constitution of The United States of America including the Bill of Rights, throw in the Ten Commandments and I’ll wear that badge of “downscale” anytime and wear it proudly.
The Barones, Frums, Buckleys, Parkers and Noonans of the world have no Conservative morals, principles or values. They surely do not speak for the majority of ‘conservative’ Republicans.
In the meantime, check out the “hick” Gov. Palin’s arrival at the Alfalfa Club. She looks mighty fine.
http://www.necn.com/Boston/Politics/2009/01/31/Palin-attends-Alfalfa-Club/1233449521.html
My 4th paragragh (3:43PM-posting) should’ve been typed as “(It’s bad enough for) conservatives to bash the entire party enough these days (for the sins of a few RINO’s who deservedly should be voted out anyway), without trying to enrage the base over a comment made by somebody (Barone) who isn’t even connected with the party.”
TammyBlog should add one more “posting rule” — Proofread your comment before posting, to make sure that you didn’t_any words out.”
PAT_S– I see your point but it still bothers me that all these Republican governors are pressuring the GOP to go along with this stimulus package. It’s this type of reckless spending that got us kicked out of power in the first place. If we ever hope to win back the White House and Congress,we must seperate ourselves from the Democrats by offering a more responsible alternative to their socialist policies. It’s like this…say there was some drunk guy staggering around the street and someone knocks him down and grabs his wallet. The mugger runs off but the drunk guy still has some change left in his pockets. Some passerby sees the whole thing. Is it right for him to take some of the change,since the drunk guy is already knocked down? The passerby would never have initiated the attack but since the drunk guy is already down,might as well take some of the change? Ok so this an extreme example but you get my point. The original mugger and the passerby are both just as guilty and it’ll come back to bite them one day! That’s just one man’s opinion :)
The Barones, Frums, Buckleys, Parkers and Noonans of the world have no Conservative morals, principles or values. They surely do not speak for the majority of ‘conservative’ Republicans. HJO
BANG! It only takes one asshat “pundit” to start a comotion. Those you’ve mentioned HJO is a good start. Have they ever listened to Reagan??? As it is said onece yo get into the Beltway Culture you begin to morph and you don’t even know it til its happened.
Conservative principles got him a landslide and that was when the MSM was the only game in town! They could have crucified him like they did to Palin. BTW, she would make a better Senator than a Pres Nom or V.P.
The peeps that got turned on by her is becasue she was speaking what the conservs were beggin to hear, myself included. And I like most voted not FOR MCCain but AGAINST Teh Barry.
When I read Barone’s words above my tooth nearly fell out. Gosh, this NASCAR American can’t catch a
break. Seems we gots no where to turn if the pointy heads in DC don’t like us. Maybe Richard Petty will run for Prez. We were trying real hard too, we even like lesbians now. Shoot, I don’t care. Now where’s my Hank Jr CD…..
JESSEHAMMER911G —
From the article as quoted above:
Michael Barone is writing as a professional about the debate within the Republican party. He isn’t suggesting there should be a debate or speculating there might be a debate. There is a debate and Mr. Barone identifies it precisely. Until the GOP rejects this argument which is seriously discussed within their ranks, I will take offense. The days of unquestioned fealty to the GOP from grassroots conservatives is over.
Interesting….I am a gun”nut”, a veteran, my family looks like a rerun of My Name is Earl……I love Sarah Palin.
Oh yes, I have advanced degrees in Laboratory Science, Speciality in Immunohematology, teaching major in Mathematics, minors in Chem, Microbiology and Genetic Analysis…..damn proud to be a gun totin’ country boy (actually old geezer) from the Rocky Mountains.
If the GOP does it again…acts as snobs to Sarah Palin or anyone else outside the Beltway, they will be toast in the next election cycle.
Pat, I don’t advocate “unquestioned fealty to the GOP”, and I never have. In fact, I tell every conservative I know (especially on message-boards) that if they don’t feel like giving to the RNC, then at least give to conservative-PAC’s that finance only “conservative” Republicans. That’s the way to get rid of the “upscale” types.
But “unquestioned fealty” is one thing…What I’m saying is that it’s quite another matter for that 7:29AM-comment to say “If the GOP does it again, acts as snobs to Sarah Palin…”
When did the party itself ever treat Sarah Palin this way? I know McCain’s campaign-team trashed Palin, but what other Repubs are we talking about (and who says that McCain’s team was “Repub”)?
“…They will be toast in the next election.” (7:29PM comment). No, we will all be Obama’s toast, if we can’t accept the fact that it will simply take a long time for us grass-roots-folks to weed out the snobs.
I advocate “unquestioned fealty” for all conservative-Repubs (including Palin) fighting to make the GOP more conservative, and fighting to keep conservative-Repubs from running away to any of those twenty un/electable “3rd” parties.
About a month ago Barone was writing about how Rep. Rangel is ‘such a charming politician’ and ‘it would be a shame for him to lose his committee position over such a little thing’; which pretty much tells you his attitude toward high-ranking tax cheats.
Tammy, won’t be blue blood on the floor; lividity would cause the blood to go to the feet and lower legs in the hanging bodies.
Lotta stupid Shit going around. Now Barone is affected.
I’ve spent more than 55 years making and repairing things that People use. Food, Tools, Gadgets, Electrical Energy and Fish Bait to name a few.Was even a Maytag Repairman for a while between a couple of my Retirements
I don’t think I could have gotten the same satisfaction from being a Philosopher, President, Professor or even CEO of a Corporation
Republicans should concentrate on attracting sensible People from all walks of life.
No, there isn’t enough money in the world to make me dress up in coat and tie every day. Someone pointed out that I should dress up for Weddings and Funerals, so I quit attending Weddings and Funerals.
I think it is a big mistake to go blue blood, and here is the reason why.
The biggest mistake Republicans make is in regard to unions and regulations. Conservatives can take back these issues. The majority of CTSH’s. (conservative talk show host’s,) completely get these issues wrong: Concerning Unions: There are aprox. 3,000 different kinds unions in this country and as an example Tradesman unions (electricians, carpenters etc…) do 4-5 year apprenticship programs and have to actually test to get into that union and often times make a big effort to get in said union. Not the same as a “union shop” per say where you automatically are in the union just for being hired and your skill requires minimal training. Did you know that a union electricians (IBEW-International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers) don’t get paid if they don’t work. No sick days, no pay for holiday; so this past Christmas Day and New Years Day, IBEW electricians could not work on those days and were not paid! Holiday’s are especially difficult. What some locals do is set up vacation/holiday &strike pay that is taken out of their checks (not paid by contractor just for these particular events.) Electricians go to school for 4-5 years depending on their particular local. The mistake all CTSH’s make is lumping all unions together. They are all different.
In regard to Regulation: Conservative Republicans (what I am myself.) are constantly shouting “Free markets,” Free Markets…while they have their hands out and they attempt to rig the market for their sole profit in total disregard to laws. Example:
Even with the complete stupidity of lowering lending standards with Fanny and Freddie Mac, we would have never been in this mess if the proper regulations had been in place for the selling of mortgage backed securities (I’m a licensed broker I know a little about this subject.) That’s why we have law’s folks. Banks should have never been able to sell risky mortgage backed securities on the open market without being insured (and large reserves) or they should have been only allowed to keep risky (subprime-100% financing) in their own portfolio. That way they make high interest on their risky loans but the public is not exposed to their risk. Another regulation example: A publicly held company should be required to have certain contract standards set into the top CEO management compension on bonus pay tied to performance. That way in the event of Bk’s, need for Gov. loans, yearly losses that show no improvement the shareholders are not ripped off. Ex: The Ford CEO bonus after 3 wks on the job, the recent CEO bonus for bank exec’s taking public loans, to prevent total collapse are prime examples.
If companies don’t want to abide by these laws, then DON”T GO PUBLIC. Keep your business private and give your top management all the bonus’ you want whether their failing or not. Both examples allow companies the freedom to manage their stockholders assets as they see fit. The average stockholder has no power in regard to these issues and pay packages are handled by boards that are often corrupt themselves. It is like putting the fox in charge of the hen house. Or like our own government printing money to spend anyway they want….oh yeah that’s happening now…please wake me up lol…. The SEC has a responsibility to protect all shareholders from unethical and criminal behavior. Pat Buchanan a true conservative figured this whole thing out a long time ago. Traditional Democrat’s admire his straight talk on these two subjects. The Republicans would very much endear themselves with average Americans and many traditional union members if they would just educate themselves in regard to these issues. I recommend that many of you out there do the same.
JESSE:
First let me apologize for the late appearance of your second comment. There was a delay in clearing the comment backlog and I wasn’t aware of that comment until now.
I think I understand your concern about conservatives leaving the GOP which would give the Democrats a clear path to political dominance for as far as the eye can see. I get the impression you think independent conservatives are impetuous and shortsighted in their criticism of the GOP. We certainly need solidarity against Obama and the liberal Democrat Congress. The problem is, the rift was engineered by moderates in the GOP, not grassroots conservatives. When I speak of “the GOP” or “Republicans” I mean this influential moderate bloc that wants to purge the party of grassroots conservatives. Surely you are aware that these influential elements want to disassociate the party from grassroots conservatism and transform the party into a “moderate” political organization. This bloc isn’t just making squeaks in the corner. They have clout. The purge has been brewing for some time. It came to a boil with the nomination of John McCain as the party’s presidential candidate. Michael Barone’s column is based on this serious purge attempt within the GOP. There is a nasty class element to it.
If the Republican Party is the only option for grassroots conservatives then it is imperative for that group to press its positions hard. I think you agree with that. For far too long the threat of having no other options muted criticism and the result of that is to find ourselves dangling over a precipice now. We’ve got nothing to lose by fighting and nothing to gain by continuing to play along. A Republican Party devoid of conservatism will not be a successful counter to Democrat control.
The moderate Republicans are deluding themselves if they think they will make inroads into the voting blocs that never question the Democrat Party. The Republicans will be best served to make peace with the grassroots conservatives who won them elections since Reagan. Grassroots conservatism is the last chance for America to survive as the extraordinary, free, democratic oasis in a world careening toward authoritarianism.
I hope I’ve interpreted your concerns correctly and that you understand my position.
Thank you, Pat.