A very good analysis of the polls and the state versus national standing situation for Romney/Ryan as it stands now. We’re 8 days away peeps–we must give it all we’ve got. Presidents Washington, Lincoln and Reagan gave our great nation their all and they expect nothing less from us.
…How does Team Romney read the situation? After discussions with various experts inside and outside the Romney circle, it appears the thinking is roughly like this:
On one hand, Ohioans have seen a different campaign from Americans in most other states. People in Ohio have been subjected to an unprecedented amount of campaigning, both from the candidates in person and especially in the form campaign advertising. And its been going on quite a while. So it is to be expected that there might be some differences between polls in Ohio and polls nationally, which also reflect areas with far less active campaigning.
On the other hand, Team Romney believes there is a fairly close relationship between the national polls and the polls in Ohio. Romney aides are highly skeptical of any results from Ohio that are several points out of line with the national polls. For example, if Romney is up two nationally, they would find it very hard to believe a poll that shows him down by five in Ohio — to them, that seven-point gap just seems too big.
Further, they believe that the national and state numbers ultimately move together, and that if national numbers move, the state numbers will eventually move, too. They concede that intense campaigning in individual states can change perhaps two or three points, but they believe there is still a fundamental relationship between national and state poll numbers. They discount the possibility of conflicting popular vote/Electoral College results as extremely remote.
Republican experts who are not affiliated with the campaign agree. The reason Ohio is the center of attention now, they say, is that it has a mix of the electorate that creates a hugely competitive race similar to that on the national level. Ohio is not exactly like the American electorate as a whole, but it’s pretty close. For example, in 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain nationally by 53 percent to 46 percent. In Ohio, the margin was 52 percent to 47 percent.
Given that, a number of well-connected pollsters expect that in the end, Ohio’s results will be fairly close to the national results. If Mitt Romney wins the national vote, they expect to see him win Ohio, too. And they would be very surprised to see a close national race and a blowout in Ohio, or a close race in Ohio and a blowout nationally.