From earlier today in Wisconsin. Enjoy.

As a follow up, Michael Barone is calling it for Romney:

Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That’s bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

But it’s also true that most voters oppose Obama’s major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery — Friday’s jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.
Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting — and about their candidate — than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.

That’s been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.

Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages — fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong.

Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don’t see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.

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9 Comments | Leave a comment
  1. NeverSurrender says:

    Tammy, just double checking. Will the live special on Saturday also be a podcast for those of us who can’t listen live?

    • Tammy says:

      Yes, the live show tomorrow will also be a podcast, and a public one at that :)

      • NeverSurrender says:

        Thanks, Tammy. I’m going to the final Romney rally here in Colorado. The outdoor venue holds 17,000 and I’m sure there will be thousands more who will want to get in. Have to get there early!

        I wanted to go to your event in Denver this past week, but was out of town. Any chance for a video of that?

        • NeverSurrender says:

          Had an incredible time at the Romney rally near Denver last night. As at the Red Rocks event, talked with several Democrats who were so disgusted with obama that they are not only voting for Mitt, but are taking the time to go to Romney/Ryan rallies. One Independent couple who voted for obama when they were in college 4 years ago told me last night that they were embarrassed they had fallen for obama’s “bulls***.” I love the awakening!

  2. WalkStar says:

    I will be sick and nervous until the race is called for Romney … But at least no one tried to divert generators and water for this race!

    • larrygeary says:

      So will I. When the DB won, I cried for my country. If Romney wins, I’ll cry again – with relief that our national nightmare will soon be over.

      Two things he said really impressed me. One was when he said he won’t just assume the office of the Presidency, he’ll assume responsibility. The other was when he said he would not represent one party, but one nation.

      But I must confess, I’m haunted by Tammy’s nightmare.

      • pamelarice says:

        Larry, your avatar is vary apropos considering Tammys’ nightmares! How can I be so conflicted? On one hand I feel pretty confident in a Romney landslide, on the other hand I have this nagging feeling that we are missing something and will wake up on Wednesday morning to a disaster of four (or more) more years of the DB

  3. Rob_W says:

    America will be a better place just by Mr. & Mrs. DB leaving the White House.

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