A very good analysis of the polls and the state versus national standing situation for Romney/Ryan as it stands now. We’re 8 days away peeps–we must give it all we’ve got. Presidents Washington, Lincoln and Reagan gave our great nation their all and they expect nothing less from us.

Via Byron York at the Washington Examiner.

…How does Team Romney read the situation? After discussions with various experts inside and outside the Romney circle, it appears the thinking is roughly like this:

On one hand, Ohioans have seen a different campaign from Americans in most other states. People in Ohio have been subjected to an unprecedented amount of campaigning, both from the candidates in person and especially in the form campaign advertising. And its been going on quite a while. So it is to be expected that there might be some differences between polls in Ohio and polls nationally, which also reflect areas with far less active campaigning.

On the other hand, Team Romney believes there is a fairly close relationship between the national polls and the polls in Ohio. Romney aides are highly skeptical of any results from Ohio that are several points out of line with the national polls. For example, if Romney is up two nationally, they would find it very hard to believe a poll that shows him down by five in Ohio — to them, that seven-point gap just seems too big.

Further, they believe that the national and state numbers ultimately move together, and that if national numbers move, the state numbers will eventually move, too. They concede that intense campaigning in individual states can change perhaps two or three points, but they believe there is still a fundamental relationship between national and state poll numbers. They discount the possibility of conflicting popular vote/Electoral College results as extremely remote.

Republican experts who are not affiliated with the campaign agree. The reason Ohio is the center of attention now, they say, is that it has a mix of the electorate that creates a hugely competitive race similar to that on the national level. Ohio is not exactly like the American electorate as a whole, but it’s pretty close. For example, in 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain nationally by 53 percent to 46 percent. In Ohio, the margin was 52 percent to 47 percent.

Given that, a number of well-connected pollsters expect that in the end, Ohio’s results will be fairly close to the national results. If Mitt Romney wins the national vote, they expect to see him win Ohio, too. And they would be very surprised to see a close national race and a blowout in Ohio, or a close race in Ohio and a blowout nationally.

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6 Comments | Leave a comment
  1. larrygeary says:

    Rasmussen has Romney 50%, Obama 48% in Ohio.

  2. FrankRemley says:

    Romney and Urkel are not running for POTUS anymore. They’re both running for President of Ohio. That’s what it’s come down to. Whoever wins Ohio wins the White House.

  3. Sailing_J says:

    Finally was able to get my absentee ballot via email. The people at Bexar County Elections Office in San Antonio are awesome and extremely helpful. They even called me back to ensure I’d received it. God Bless Texas!

  4. Mary says:

    Good Wishes to the East Coast. I’m here in Ohio, awaken from high winds hitting the window at 3:30 am. It has been raining; now snowing with winds gusts to reach 50 to 75. Yes, 500 miles from the Sandy storm and we are getting the effects! Some power out across the state. Just listening to Tam radio podcast. Tammy talking about the early voting going on here in Ohio. A couple of points. Lots of us get our ballots in the mail, but then we can personally take them back to the court house. Court Clerk said many voters return the ballot this way. 2nd point – while Tammy pointed out that Obama is ahead in early voting, or more DEMs are voting early in Ohio…not sure how they are voting.) Here is what national media is not reporting – these are DEMs that normally vote, therefore they are just taking away from their base and totals of people that will voting on election day. On the other hand – Ohio GOPs voting early are new or have voted only once before in the elections; to the number of over 200,000 to 300,000. These are new voters going for Mitt to ADD to the base. The last 3 weeks, Ohio’s moving for Mitt. I now believe Ohio will go for Mitt.

    • Rob_W says:

      I agree, Mary. Having lived in Cincinnati and traveling all over the state (I still visit often) my impression is that Ohio is a cross-section or intersection of America. It’s no surprise that Ohio (ultimately) trends with the nation.

      • Mary says:

        You are correct Rob W, Ohio is the mini USA; that is why all the companies test market the new products here. I visit Cincy often.
        I had a Mitt Romney volunteer come to my house yesterday and the weather was cold and nasty. He is working hard this last week!

        I thought I would share some Ohio New Talk Radio Stations, if any TAMs want to streamline and get a listen into how things are going in Ohio this last week. Also, they will have updated election results as they come in.

        WTAM 1100am – Cleveland (infamous Cuyahoga County area will go Obama)

        WTVN 610 am – Columbus

        WLW 700am – Cincinnati (all local shows; no Rush, Glenn or Sean here)
        WKRC 550am

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