There are many reasons why the GOP nominee will win the White House, and this is one of the big ones: enthusiasm. The Republicans are excited and the Democrats, well, not so much. They’re so depressed, that even with the Bernie voters, turnout is down almost 20% from 2008. According to Breitbart, almost 4.5 million fewer Democrats have voted in the 2016 primary season so far than at the comparable time in 2008.
Now, we find a 145,000 increase in GOP registration in Pennsylvania since the Fall of 2015, with 61,500 of those being Democrats who switched to the GOP already this year alone. This is not the first time we’ve seen this, it appears to be a trend. Remember this post from February: Trump Surge? Nearly 20K Mass. Voters Quit Dem Party; 3500 Switch to GOP.
Now it’s one thing to win on enthusiasm by bringing out more of your own base, but then add in massive defections from the opposition party and you have a movement which is undeniable and will prevail. These are the “Reagan Democrats” coming to the fore again. Last time they appeared, 49 of 50 states went red in the general election.
In Pennsylvania, as an example, a state Trump won handily this evening, the Duluth News Tribune reports:
“We always voted Democrat,” said Laurie McGinnis, as her husband Ricky hung a Trump banner outside their South Greensburg home. “But not any more.”
Some of these newly minted Pennsylvania Republicans are formalizing a process that began with Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980, when conservative-leaning Democrats began shifting away from the party in the faded industrial state.
Others moved abruptly, inspired by Trump and fed up with a party they say no longer speaks their language.
Together the result is one of the most sizable shifts of partisan allegiance ever in Pennsylvania: 61,500 Democrats have become Republicans so far this year, part of a 145,000 jump in Republican registrations since the fall 2015 election, according to state figures analyzed by both parties. It’s more new Republicans than in the previous four years combined.
Be afraid liberals, be very afraid, because we’re coming to get this nation off her knees.
Think back to 2009 when Senator Arlen Spector switched from R. to D. helping Obama get a filibuster proof 60 majority. Bush worked to reelect Spector in 2004. Conservatism would have worked in PA if it had been pushed. But instead we got kumbaya pandering. Welcome former Democrats, new GOPers and independents.
Kathleen Matthews lost. A constitutional law professor (American U.) won. His previous ‘success’, he reduced 2A rights with increased gun control laws in Maryland.
Among the five deep blue states in Tuesday’s primary, PA is the only one which I see Republicans being able to win: the number of votes for Hillary and Trump were closer, and it is possible that any deficiencies may be counterbalanced by an increase in Republican registration, or by independents, who didn’t vote in PA’s closed primary. (Forget about CT, RI, DE, and MD). I won’t be holding my breath though. Unless there is a massive Republican surge in the election, with the democrat machinery in Philly, I’m not that optimistic.