A post by Maynard
The Indian Prime Minister is saying that “Nobody wants war.” This may be, but India and Pakistan seem to be orienting their militaries for a possible conflict. If that comes, a nuclear exchange could follow.
Meanwhile, Pakistan is moving troops away from the frontier with Afghanistan, sending the signal that it’s okay for the Taliban to operate out of its lawless regions. Before this is over, somebody is going to have to deal a blow to this terrorist haven. If it’s done from outside of Pakistan, then a serious balancing act must be done to avoid war with Pakistan.
Then there’s the Iranian nuclear program. You may recall that John Bolton speculated that an Obama victory would prompt an Israeli raid before Obama settled in. Otherwise, Obama will probably restart the clock on talking to Iran, giving the Iranians adequate time to finish their bomb program.
Israel feels additional urgency based upon reports of a sophisticated new air defense system which Iran says is on the way from Russia. However, the Russians deny this.
Esmaeil Kosari, deputy chairman of the [Iranian] parliamentary commission on national security and foreign policy, told Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency Sunday that Russia was already sending components for its formidable S-300PMU-1 system — NATO designation SA-20 Gargoyle — to the Islamic republic. In Washington, the outgoing Bush administration quizzed Russia about the report. U.S. officials indicated they also had intelligence information to support Kosari’s claim.
Israel recognizes a threat to its existence and has been deeply concerned about that system, which would, once operational, seriously reduce the chances of a successful raid.
…senior Israeli Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad said, “The deliveries of dangerous armaments to our enemies won’t serve the interests of peace and, for instance, can help Iran wipe Israel off the face of earth.”
If Iran is attacked, there is likely to be spillover into the Strait of Hormuz, through which much Middle Eastern oil passes. Iran might attempt, as it has threatened, to shut down the Strait and thus hold the world hostage. This would probably bring America into the conflict.
These are events that may happen sooner rather than later. The Obama administration may have to hit the ground running. These are circumstances that I would have preferred John McCain to be addressing, but it’s too late to worry about that now. (Perhaps we should give Mr. Obama credit for maintaining continuity at the Defense Department (that is, Robert Gates as Secretary) during the transition. It’s reassuring to know that if things heat up while the rest of the government is in motion, the military won’t be headless.)
By the way, I don’t want to be cavalier about the possibility of war with Pakistan or Iran. Certainly Iran in particular needs to be bombed. But if and when that happens, the aftershock (in particular, the oil shock) will shake up the entire world. It really would be good for all if hostilities could be avoided. But I’m not sure they can be.
Strap yourself in folks, 2009 is gonna be a wild ride.
I enjoyed your show this morning, particularly your discussion about Israel and the Jews–a breath of fresh air in this area.
One question I had is: how come, with the exception of the US, other countries around the world do not support Israel in it’s current and past attempts to rid itself of Hammas???
Is it blatant anti-semitism or what??
Stephen Schindler
KWH – I second that – you couldn’t have said it better!
Just a thought but might this whole bit be a ploy to concentrate the Taliban in an area of Pakistan then have them accidentally nuked as part of this current tiff? Especially if the Pakistanis return the favor by wiping out some Tamal separatists in the process. After all, it was an Al Qeada sponsored group that attacked the Indian financial district. It would be an nice neat solution.
One of the primary dangers here is that foot dragging or intransigence on the part of an Obama administration plays into Iran’s hand in a variety of ways, not only giving Iran time to complete multiple nuclear weapons, but to disperse those weapons before Israel can mount an effective raid against them. Missiles are only one way to deliver a nuclear bomb. If this stalling allows Iran time to install much more effective anti-air defenses, this is somewhat good, but mostly bad. Iran will almost certainly put its most effective defenses around those installations it most wants to protect, essentially painting a larger target on them, however, the distance between Iran and Israel makes tactical bombing very very difficult, and unlike the Islamists, the Israelis aren’t prone to suicide missions.
The point is that if the Israelis don’t get substantial help from the US, they will clearly see that it’s in their best interest to use whatever weapons are necessary, not only to eliminate an immediate threat, but a long range threat as well. The current government of Israel does not have the courage to do this. Netenyahu, who is ahead in the polls, does. The Israelis may well conclude that conventional weapons will not accomplish even their short term goals and decide to use nuclear weapons.
Yes, they would. After all, Iran has made it clear that Iran will use such weapons against Israel as soon as possible. Israel may very well conclude that having a mostly hostile US administration as an ally is better than having another holocaust. Wouldn’t you make the same determination? As President Bush said, in our world, we can’t wait for the other guy to strike the first blow because it could very well be too late. After all, what would change? Decimating Iran would have nothing but good effects for Israel in that Iran’s support for Hezbollah, Hamas and other lunatic terrorist organizations would be curtailed. The UN would scream, the Arab states would condemn, the Europeans would whine, but under the table, many of these same states would be exchanging high (low?) fives with Israel. And Israel’s willingness to pull the nuclear trigger might very well give some regimes pause.
The ancient Chinese curse is certainly operant here. We are living in interesting times.
I laugh at the premise presented in the first sentence of the article. I contend that ALOT of people want war. Perhaps the civilized people in most civilized nations don’t. But the special interests and uncivilized in uncivilized (and even civilized) nations do. War takes on many faces and it is constantly being waged in one way or another. And I agree, ’09 is gonna be a wild ride.