A post by Maynard
Why was Mumbai attacked? Here’s a theory:
Since the 9/11 attacks, America has bribed and pressured Pakistan to take further control over its lawless border with Afghanistan, which has effectively given militants a safe haven. This has been a delicate situation, but there seems to have been progress in recent months. We’ve lately heard news stories about American attacks inside Pakistan, and more aggressive moves by Pakistan’s army. Such things only happen after behind-the-scenes diplomatic agreements have been reached.
The attack on Mumbai leaves the Indian people demanding revenge, and Pakistan is the obvious target. Does Pakistan deserve the Indian reprisal? Maybe, maybe not. The point is, if hostilities break out, Pakistan’s army will have better things to worry about than the Afghan border. So a conflict between Pakistan and India serves al-Qaida’s interest, in that it gives the terrorists additional breathing room. This may be why the Mumbai attack was launched.
And of course both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons, so a war could quickly reach catastrophic proportions.
We’re sending Condi Rice to India, and she’ll certainly be pulling out all the stops to de-escalate the rising tensions. She’ll probably move on to Pakistan and promise all sorts of carrots to stick to the game plan of taming Afghan militants. Let’s hope cooler heads prevail, because a war would play to al-Quada’s advantage.
Insightful analysis. With this current crisis festering it will be interesting to see how Secretary Clinton reacts. Oh, I forgot – it’s all Bush’s fault.
Based upon Dr. Rice’s recent track record, and the fact that she is part of a lame duck administration, I see her effectiveness miniimized.
India and Pakistan are a on a constant ‘war footing’ siuation with each other. We have seen the escalation before.
The point regarding al-Quada, is well taken.
Everything you’ve said is correct. But the Indian public wants blood, and justifiably so. I hope cooler heads prevail; I don’t expect them to. We can be glad for the moment at least that the Congress Party is running things: if a BJP government was currently in power, I genuinely expect India would’ve already attacked Pakistan. Some Indian politician sometime soon is going to say that India’s continuing terrorism and other security concerns are attributable, at least in part, to the very EXISTENCE of Pakistan, and demand a forcible reunification of the subcontinent. There is a huge audience in India now for exactly that message, as catastrophically dangerous as it is.
The suspected guerrilla group, Laskhar-i-Tiba (LeT) is based in Kashmir. One of the Mumbai terrorists reportedly said the attacks were about the treatment of Muslims in Kashmir. The group was created by the Pakistan military 20 years ago to fight Indian troops in Kashmir. After the LeT attacked the Indian Parliament in 2001, the group was technically banned in Pakistan. All they did was change their name and continued to run training camps, religious schools and “charitable” organizations in Pakistan. The LeT gets a lot of its funding from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.
The civilian government in Pakistan is very weak. The ISI and the army run the country. Pakistan is nearly broke so they need the fig leaf of a civilian government to get money from America and the IMF. India has a vibrant economy but is currently undergoing a bout of high inflation and they’ve been hit by the credit crisis tsunami. The Congress Party is under a lot of pressure to do something. Officials are resigning and they are reorganizing their anti-terror operations. The Janata opposition party has been very critical of the Congress Party about being soft on terrorism.
Was the LeT manipulated by al-Qaida to put India in a position of mandatory retaliation thus taking pressure off the Taliban? If so, will it work? I don’t think the Congress Party wants to go as far as war. At this time there is little hard evidence as to the extent of Pakistan’s involvement. We may see another exercise in brinkmanship between these two nuclear countries which have a long history of hostility. Maybe some troops will be shuffled around briefly. Washington will dip into the magic money bag we apparently have then Pakistan will once again promise to cut support to terror groups and tensions will suddenly be reduced.
Condi Clueless Rice – a total joke as Sec. of State.