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A post by Maynard

On the international front, Iran is the most urgent situation on the short-to-midterm horizon. This isn’t about Israel, but obviously Israel is on the frontline of whatever happens.

The Obama administration is regarded as tilting to the dovish side, but an election is coming up in Israel. It’s very possible that the next Prime Minister will be the relatively hawkish Binyamin Netanyahu of the Likud party.

Just as Obama did, Netanyahu wants to convince people that he’s not out of touch with the political center. He’s published this editorial with the Obama-echoing title of “Yes, we can!”:

President Barack Obama’s accession to the presidency is truly inspiring. Today, every American boy and girl knows that there is nothing they cannot achieve if they apply themselves. This powerful sense of hope extends well beyond America’s shores as people throughout the world try to bring the same optimism to their own countries…

In a hostile world, Israelis hesitate to elect a leader who will alienate their best friend. Hence Netanyahu’s friendly tone, communicating his intent to work with, rather than against, an Obama-led America. But he goes on to warn:

…the outcome of one issue will prove more important to Obama’s presidency than all others: Will his administration succeed in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons?

A nuclear-armed Iran will change the world as we know it. It will pose a direct existential threat to Israel. Equally, Iran’s terror proxies, including Hezbollah and Hamas, will operate under an Iranian nuclear umbrella. Iran will move quickly to dominate the world’s oil supplies and the nuclear nonproliferation treaty will be rendered meaningless.

Amen. If Iran goes nuclear, then either nuclear war will directly follow, or the nonproliferation treaty will be null and void and other nations will rush to go nuclear, which will certainly lead to nuclear war before long. Or maybe Iran will simply become the regional superpower, effectively controlling half the world’s oil. In any case, there would be terrible economic and military consequences that would be felt throughout world. This must not be allowed happen.

I’m not cavalier about attacking Iran, but it may be the least-bad option, unless the world gets very serious about sanctions. Sanctions have been elusive, but they may come about if there’s a realization that, without hard sanctions, war is inevitable. Life is uncomfortable inside Iran (and of course the oil crash is hurting Iranian finances), so it’s not impossible that sanctions could topple the existing system.

Let’s hope war can be avoided, but something has got to give. And it’s going to happen on Obama’s watch.

As a follow-up, Drudge has linked this news report, which hits the same point:

Netanyahu said he believes the global financial meltdown is reversible if governments, businesses and people make the right decisions. “What is not reversible is the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a fanatic radical regime … We have never had, since the dawn of the nuclear age, nuclear weapons in the hands of such a fanatical regime.”

Netanyahu’s evaluation stands in contrast to Obama’s words from last May: “Iran, Cuba, Venezuela — these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don’t pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us.”

I’d say Netanyahu got it right and Obama got it wrong. The Soviet Union, for all its evilness, did not have the death cult quality inherent to radical Islam. Russia was certainly bigger than Iran, but also more responsible.

But Obama has elsewhere indicated that he “gets” the Iranian threat. Let’s hope that’s true.