As I often note, polls and analyses are really just snapshots, but this is interesting considering the hysteria coming from the GOP bureaucracy about Trump. Maybe they’re all projecting when it comes to seeing someone as a loser. After all, that’s what the GOP has delivered time and time again– losing. But in order to be prepared it’s important to have a clear view of the data as we proceed. The following is interesting food for thought on that very point.
It is evident that Donald Trump has rewritten the rules of political campaigning, leaving the so- called experts, analysts, journalists and even the GOP itself puzzled by the power and effectiveness of his approach…
Latino advocacy groups and some celebrities have launched powerful videos, protests and campaigns against Trump. Recognized conservative voices like Marco Rubio, Susana Martinez, the Bush family, and even Pope Francis himself have made their discontent clear with the candidate, but could it be possible he is actually gaining support among Hispanics?
Numerous articles and Op-Eds have discounted his so-called “rise” among Latinos by pointing out the flawed nature of polls. Back in February, after claiming a win with 46 percent of the Hispanic vote in Nevada, critics quickly challenged the full sample size of voters captured to disregard the number. Most recently, Latino Decisions published an article called “Why Polls On Latinos Get It Wrong,” confirming that current ways of polling are under-representing Latinos’ voice.
Clearly, conventional political research is in question, but what if big data analysis reveals Trump’s rise is real, based on a sample size of over 1 million Hispanics?
Based on big data analysis over the last 30 days as of June 1st, Trump reports 37 percent of Hispanic positive sentiment versus 41 percent for Clinton. Surprisingly, the candidates tie in negative sentiment across Hispanics at 38 percent, discounting the fact that Latinos default as Democrats or are completely turned off by Trump’s off-color comments. After all, over 50 percent of Latinos identify as political independents…
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This race will be so polarizing, and nasty, on both sides. I believe, when it comes down to it, people will vote will their purse and not their heart.
For the record, Big Data is not a conventional opinion poll. It is algorithm based data mining of social media measuring sentiment and reporting “insights”. Some think this methodology will replace conventional polling which is increasingly inaccurate because of a falling response rate and other factors.
This particular “poll” used Cultrintel”.
http://culturintel.xlalliance.com/
Brave New World here we are.