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A post by Maynard

I honestly don’t want to post this, but I feel I must. I’m projecting into the future, which is always a dicey proposition. I’d like nothing more than to be completely wrong about everything.

I’m not sure there’s any point in your reading this. In fact, I’d advise you to skip it.

Okay, here we go.

As I said, projecting is a dicey business. So many unknown factors will inevitably creep into the equation.

But there are also known factors. In 20 years, 40-year-olds will either die or become 60-year-olds. 1-year-olds will become 21-year-olds. So we have some sense of the numbers of people in various age brackets, and some history of how much they will produce and consume.

The gathering storm:

Take a look at this report from the Congressional Budget Office, “A 125-Year Picture of the Federal Government’s Share of the Economy, 1950 to 2075”. This report was prepared in 2002, before the budget went to hell. So this is a projection from a better day. Take it as an optimistic projection. (Fox just issued a report noting that Social Security and Medicare would go broke several years sooner than previously expected, and that many trillions of dollars would be needed to close the gap. Again, this is independent of the recent spending binges.)

Here’s the key chart, based on spending patterns and demographics as of the good old days of 2002:

Two notes: First, overall expenses are rising steadily and dramatically from approximately now until the end of the graph in 2075, where it’s at 40% of GDP and rising.

Second, the cause of the rise is Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest on the rising debt. Demographics will catch up with us, pushing claims through the roof.

In other words, the Federal Government has long been on autopilot to transform itself into a machine whose major function is to seize wealth from party “A” and hand it over to party “B”. (And, with respect to servicing the national debt, our government’s fundamental job will be to suck money out of our children’s pockets and pay it to China.) None of the rise has to do with defense or infrastructure maintenance or any of what we would regard as legitimate functions of government. In fact, real government functions will get crowded out by the mandatory giveaway programs.

This other chart is also important. It’s the projected graph of Federal income and outgo. As you see, the anticipated expenses rise but the income does not. That’s because the taxation levels were projected to be stable. So the deficit heads skywards.

So we were heading for a big problem as of 2002. And everyone in Washington knew it.

Then along came George Bush and Barack Obama, evil twins that decided the Federal Government hadn’t made enough commitments. So they both grew the government and made more big, unfunded promises and are spending even more money.

On the revenue side, George Bush cut taxes for everyone. And Barack Obama promised to cut taxes for 95% of the people.

In other words, with disaster looming on the horizon, our political leaders have aggressively chosen the course that will magnify the problem and cause it to strike sooner.

How can this be happening? Have we gone mad? Am I saying anything here that is either unimportant or less than obvious?

Will we change course?

So where does this all lead? Obviously to some sort of unpleasantness on a grand scale. America may collapse financially as the Soviet Union did. The dollar may collapse. The government may seize vast swaths of private wealth. There may be war that will overwhelm the financial turmoil, or some other sort of international takeover. One way or another, we’re in for a painful and perhaps fatal drama.

Recent history illustrates how politicians of both parties are more inclined to steer us toward disaster rather than to make the hard decisions that will save the day. The Republican and Democrat leadership have basically been competing to see who can destroy the nation more quickly.

If our political leadership has indeed chosen national suicide, then nothing short of a revolution will save us.

I’m not banking on a revolution. It’s very hard to have a revolution run by people who aren’t worse than whatever it is they’re revolting against. The original American Revolution was rather unique and amazing in this respect. It would be difficult to keep the modern Timothy McVeighs from pushing aside the historical George Washingtons.

Nor are the Republicans going to save us. They’re too weak and disorganized. A few of them are saying the right things. But how can we forget that they did the wrong things when they had the chance? So forget the Republicans.

What about the Democrats? You expect me now to dismiss them with an insult, right? And certainly many of them are irrevocably on the path to hell and intent on carrying us along. But that’s not my final word on the party.

Now comes the truly lunatic portion of our presentation

First of all, let me say again that I’d love to be completely wrong in everything I’ve said up to this point. I don’t want to be right. I just want to get on with my stupid life and never discuss politics again.

And maybe I am wrong. But if I’m right…well, rhetoric aside, there are plenty of Democrats out there that don’t want the nation to commit suicide. There are Democrats that want to live and prosper just like we do. Nor are these people all stupid.

If I’m right, then a few Democrats are, in the privacy of their own minds, horrified at what Obama is doing. They are slowly coming to the realization that his policies must be reversed.

Even in the face of such an awakening, political sclerosis protects Obama. Anyone that steps out of line will be herded back into place by party leadership. Rebels will find themselves stripped of committee standing and the trappings of privilege. (See this WSJ article for an example of how an annoying legislator is put into the “dog house”.) So the rank and file may want to bolt, but they won’t dare try anything.

I am convinced that Barack Obama is one of those mentally ill charismatics that are compelled to gather followers and lead them to their dooms. (Am I sounding crazy yet? Sorry, but that’s what I see.) Obama will not be swayed by reason or imminent catastrophe. Nor will he make reasonable arguments. He will merely overcome obstacles by force of will (the political equivalent of “These aren’t the droids you’re looking for”). He will continue until he achieves his goal or until he falls so hard that he cannot get up.

The only force that can bring him down would be something of a palace coup, engineered by the most senior Democrats.

So let’s think about this. The country is falling apart, but Obama’s Teflon coating is holding up well. Obama cannot be deposed because he is, however ridiculous it may seem, popular.

The only person who could pull this off would be someone high in the Democrat hierarchy who is likewise popular. Someone who is cunning and ruthless. And it would be nice if this Someone had something that Obama doesn’t have…such as, for example, association in the public mind with a good economy instead of Obama’s endless bailouts and power grabs.

Have you guessed where I’m going with this? This may be desperately wishful thinking on my part, but I’m wondering if the salvation of the nation might come from…Billary Clinton! Yes, I think we might yet see some sort of Hillary administration, in effect if not in name, come out of this.

Am I suggesting that Hillary will sneak into the White House and bash Obama to death with his teleprompter one dark night? No, nothing quite that blatant. But again, if I’m right about any of the foregoing, then Hillary is smart enough to know what’s going down. And I don’t think Hillary, for all her flaws, wants to preside over the death of America. So if I’m right, Hillary is thinking about how to save the country, and realizing that she may be in a position to do…something. (And “something” can mean a lot of things to people skilled in the art of political hardball. Some courses of action might be so subtle that we on the outside wouldn’t immediately realize that the winds had shifted and the teleprompter was reading from a different script.)

In writing these comments, I am painfully aware that I’ve moved from hard facts to questionable analysis to lunatic fringe speculations. The latter portion is absurd to the point that I shouldn’t post it. I’m doing this not so much as to predict exactly what’s going to happen as to emphasize the point that something quite serious has got to happen. We’re not just going to limp through Obama’s presidency and then slowly work our way back to a better place. I wish it were that simple, but the numbers tell me it’s not.

So, as awful as it seems, it comes down this: Either Obama fails or the country fails. Either Obama destroys us or something happens. And that something, whatever it might be, is certainly out of our hands. Sure, we’ll go to our Tea Parties and write heartfelt letters to our representatives and otherwise try to win the hearts and minds of the nation. But that’s just not enough to turn the tide. Not before it’s too late.

I guess there’s nothing left other than to say (and I don’t know what this means) that I sure hope something happens. And in the meantime…well, we carry on as best we can.