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A post by Maynard

What is going on in North Korea? We don’t read much in the news, because the place is so secretive. Therefore we don’t have pictures, and it’s easy to ignore what we cannot see, especially since we’re all busy calling each other racists. But NorKo could become suddenly important, considering 1) The leaders are certifiable lunatics, and 2) They control one of the world’s biggest armies, not to mention nuclear weapons, and 3) There is reason to believe the leadership is changing from the (somewhat) known kook to a new, unknown kook. Or possibly the various unknown kooks-in-waiting will fight each other for the privilege of becoming top kook. In any case, the changing of the kooks might create a situation even more mysterious and unstable than the current lunacy, and that’s saying something.

If you want to follow up, The Economist has posted a couple of articles. Here’s one on the possible succession, “Thanks Dad”. And another, “Next of Kim”.

…outsiders will strain next week for a glimpse into the hermit fief to see if Mr Kim uses the Korean Workers’ Party’s first gathering in 30 years to designate his third son, Kim Jong Un, as his heir. Whatever he does, the issue of succession is likely to escape the secrecy in which it has been wrapped for decades. For all the peephole excitement of watching a real-life “Dynasty” in one of the world’s darkest places, the transition could produce some dangerous moments—and not just on the peninsula, but also for China, North Korea’s sole remaining protector.

The older Kim, who has been in power since 1994, may be frail, but it is not clear that he is yet ready to anoint his twenty-something, basketball-loving boy, even though he has been called a chip off the old block. Unlike the father, who was groomed as dictator-in-waiting for over a decade, his third son’s existence is still officially unacknowledged. Reportedly there is a trite song, called “Footsteps”, in his honor, and a glowing published tribute to his “excellence both in the arts of pen and sword”. But his qualifications for running a derelict country with a nuclear arsenal and one of the world’s five biggest armies are seriously in doubt.

From the second article:

The difficulty Kim Jong Un would face—if he were anointed dictator-in-waiting—is that at 27 (or 28, depending on whom you believe), he is too young to have real influence over the two institutions that matter, the party and the army. Kim Jong Il had 14 years in which to build up loyalties between his anointment and eventual succession. But if his health is as bad as it seems, his Swiss-educated, basketball-playing son would probably have a lot less. Much would therefore depend on those around him, and especially on Chang Sung Taek, Kim Jong Il’s brother-in-law and the second most powerful man in the country.

In June Mr Chang was promoted to the post of vice-chairman of the National Defense Commission, the country’s decision-making body. He himself has been considered a possible successor to Mr Kim but his recent promotion has been interpreted as a maneuver to bolster Kim Jong Un. The idea is that Mr Chang will act as a kind of regent. But it is also possible that Kim Jong Un is being groomed as successor in name only. He is thought to have been picked ahead of his two older brothers solely because he is the least bad of a bad lot. It is possible that Kim Jong Il may expect the regent to govern indefinitely.

This stuff could make the difference between peace and nuclear war. And it’s all largely speculative. Nobody knows anything for sure.

I sure wish we had a president who had the skills to handle the situation if the wars heat up.