The Democrats have primaries and caucuses in 22 states and one territory, the Republicans have 21 contests. The Democrats have 1,681 delegates at stake, 52% of the total. The Republican have 975, or 41% of their total to be won on Tuesday.

All Democrat contests reward delegates on a proportional basis. This Repubs have a mixed arrangement, some states are Winner Take All, others are proportional.

For tomorrow, after consulting with my friend Johnny, I predict Romney will win, at a minimum, California (a state which McCain is now downplaying. Another indication even his internal polling shows Romney winning), Utah, Colorado and Massachusetts.

California: 173 delegates, proportional, closed (only Repubs can vote)
Utah: 36 delegates, winner take all, open (Repubs and others can vote)
Colorado: 46 delegates, proportional, closed.
Massachusetts: 43 delegates, proportional, open.

While winning these contests won’t put him over the top, they keep Romney competitive, allowing the authentic conservative base to find its footing and coalesce with Romney. It will also send a message, especially with winning California (an even more important prize than Florida) that Romney has what it takes to win, and is more than viable. That will help to bring people over. Here now are the contests set for February. The WaPo has the entire schedule up until the November 4 election.

Caucuses and primaries set for tomorrow, February 5:

Alabama (Dem. | GOP), Alaska caucuses (Dem. | GOP), Arizona (Dem. | GOP), Arkansas (Dem. | GOP), California (Dem. | GOP), Colorado caucuses (Dem. | GOP), Connecticut (Dem. | GOP), Delaware (Dem. | GOP), Georgia (Dem. | GOP), Idaho caucus (Dem.), Illinois (Dem. | GOP), Kansas caucus (Dem.), Massachusetts (Dem. | GOP), Minnesota caucuses (Dem. | GOP), Missouri (Dem. | GOP), Montana caucus (GOP), New Jersey (Dem. | GOP), New Mexico caucus (Dem.), New York (Dem. | GOP), North Dakota caucuses (Dem. | GOP), Oklahoma (Dem. | GOP), Tennessee (Dem. | GOP), Utah (Dem. | GOP), West Virginia (GOP)

Saturday, February 9: Kansas caucus (GOP), Louisiana (Dem. | GOP caucus), Nebraska caucus (Dem.)

Sunday, February 10: Maine caucus (Dem.)

Tuesday, February 12: District of Columbia (Dem. | GOP) | Maryland (Dem. | GOP), Virginia (Dem. | GOP)

Tuesday, February 19: Hawaii caucus (Dem.), Washington (Dem. | GOP), Wisconsin (Dem. | GOP)

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2 Comments | Leave a comment
  1. ashleymatt says:

    Tammy,

    Could you post reminders about what times you are going to be on Fox News tomorrow?

  2. pjb says:

    I live abroad, I applied for my absentee ballot way before the deadline. Never showed up. what can I do?? Can’t exactly drive to my local precinct.

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