A post by Maynard
Today Tammy spoke about John Bolton’s prediction of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, said on Tuesday that he believes Israel will stage a raid against Iran’s nuclear facilities if Democratic nominee Senator Barack Obama wins the upcoming presidential elections.
Bolton said the IAF would likely strike in the interim term between election day (November 4th) and the inauguration (January 20th 2009) – while George W. Bush is still in office.
Bolton believes that Israel may consider postponing the attack if Senator John McCain emerges as the victor in the race, and said apprehension of Obama’s foreign policy in Jerusalem would likely be the motivating factor behind an early strike.
As background of this analysis, consider that all the European countries have immediately embargoed Israel with respect to strategic goods whenever hostilities have broken out. For example, when Egypt and Syria launched the surprise attacks of the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Europe closed the supply lines, severely hindering Israel’s ability to maintain its defences under fire. This was ostensbily to convey evidence of European neutrality, although of course it was an obvious sop to the Arabs and anti-Semites. Meanwhile, Russia was sending munitions to the Arabs at full tilt. President Nixon wrestled with the issue and authorized an American supply line (“Operation Nickel Grass“). After much wrangling, a staging area in Portugal was set up (the European embargo blocked transport through or overflight of Europe, and aircraft coming from America needed a place to stop and refuel).
Thanks in large part to President Nixon’s aid, Israel rallied on the battlefield. Israel then owed America a debt which Henry Kissinger collected in demanding Israeli lenience against Egypt; this was then leveraged into bringing Egypt out of the Soviet orbit and into alliance with America. Thus the foundation was laid for a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, which came to fruition under the Carter administration.
But what if the war had broken out under Carter? Would America have joined the European embargo? Would Israel have survived?
You begin to understand why Israel might need to take care of business before a Carter-like Obama administration comes to power. Or why a McCain administration might allow for a little more breathing room.
A strike against Iran may be necessary, but there will be unpleasant global consequences in its aftermath. A successful strike would not in itself solve the Iranian problem, but it would set the clock back on Iranian weaponry by a number of years.
The short term result of a strike would be an oil crisis and the possibility of expanded hostilities. American forces in the region would be on high alert; they would be prepared to counterattack if provoked. Whether the Iranians would wish to draw Americans into battle or steer clear of clashes is anybody’s guess.
Logistically, it’s difficult to attack Iran from Israel. Look at a map and you’ll see that Syria and Jordan and Iraq are in the way. This drags other nations into the fray — including America, which controls Iraqi airspace.
Also, Israel doesn’t necessarily have the military muscle to do the job properly. The Iranians have buried and distributed their facilities, which makes it a much bigger operation. Some say Israel would prefer America launch a raid. Or, more chillingly, Israel might be tempted to employ tactical nukes in order to ensure that hardened targets are completely destroyed by a limited task force.
Some theories have it that the Bush administration has quietly promised regional powers to push Israel towards major concessions on a Palestinian state; in exchange, the locals will give tacit approval to an American strike on Iran. This may explain Condi’s recent accommodating attitude, and also why Iran has a special interest in stirring up the local belligerents and blocking any lull in hostilities.
The game is a complex one, and the stakes are very high. The clock is running down, and no matter what happens, the situation won’t be rosy when George Bush leaves office. Stay tuned, and don’t jump to conclusions.
