A post by Pat
The Australians in a recent White Paper defense review are considering the possibility of a US decline over the next two decades. While they see a sudden and dramatic shift in the power balance in the Asia-Pacific region currently unlikely, they say they must consider “any diminution in the willingness or capacity of the US to act as a stabilizing force†as a matter of concern.
They forecast a “multipolar†global order evolving as China continues its military modernization and other regional powers develop. The Aussies are determined to be able to look out for themselves although they are optimistic that the US will remain the pre-eminent global power through 2030. They believe a global economic order will require major powers to be pragmatic and cooperative with each other.
Considering the pace at which Obama is incurring debt, destroying the capitalist economy and preferring smiles over a strong defense, 2030 may be overly optimistic. The Aussies point out these assessments may change when the next paper is issued five years from now. I dread what that report will say.
You better run, you better take cover.
Defending Australia In the Asia-Pacific Century: Force 2030
…The nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran focused our minds, as did the prospect of weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of non-state actors. Cyber warfare has emerged as a serious threat to critical infrastructure, piracy has re-emerged as a threat to maritime security and space is being used by more nations for strategic purposes. But the biggest changes to our outlook over the period have been the rise of China, the emergence of India and the beginning of the end of the so-called unipolar moment; the almost two-decade-long period in which the pre-eminence of our principal ally, the United States, was without question.
3.17 We also need to consider the circumstances of a more dramatic and, in defence planning terms, sudden deterioration in our strategic outlook. While currently unlikely, a transformation of major power relations in the Asia-Pacific region would have a profound effect on our strategic circumstances. Of particular concern would be any diminution in the willingness or capacity of the United States to act as a stabilising force.
4.13 Looking beyond the immediate challenges of this crisis, by 2030, any changes in economic power will affect the distribution of strategic power. Stability in any multipolar global order will most likely result from economic interdependence and pragmatic political cooperation among the major powers. While the potential for those powers to cooperate to manage their relationships and global stability is high, it is by no means certain. Tensions could arise. If nothing else, the potential always remains for nations to miscalculate the interests and reactions of other nations.
4.17 Will the United States continue to play over the very long term the strategic role that it has undertaken since the end of World War II? It remains the case that no other power will have the military, economic or strategic capacity to challenge US global primacy over the period covered by this White Paper. But the United States might find itself preoccupied and stretched in some parts of the world such that its ability to shift attention and project power into other regions, when it needs to, is constrained. This is likely to cause the United States to seek active assistance from regional allies and partners, including Australia, in crises, or more generally in the maintenance of stable regional security arrangements.
4.23 Barring major setbacks, China by 2030 will become a major driver of economic activity both in the region and globally, and will have strategic influence beyond East Asia. By some measures, China has the potential to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy around 2020. However, economic strength is also a function of trade, aid and financial flows, and by those market-exchange based measures, the US economy is likely to remain paramount.
Also see:
A Pacific Warning -Australia prepares for U.S. decline.
Australia bulks up
When you are going down hill, the first ones who desert you are your acquaintances, then your friends, then family. I expect to see more of this in the future. Thanx dem wits!
Everyone always projects the present into the future as a straight line, when in reality that has NEVER been the way history worked out. China itself is in the middle of its bubble bursting, and that’s a bubble goes to the late 80’s. The coastal cities are hugely wealthy and don’t feel the need to be bothered taking orders from Beijing anymore; meanwhile, the countryside is as mired in poverty as it has always been. China goes in cycles of centralization and centifugal collapse, without fail, going back 2500 years: I believe it’s at least as likely that in a few decades China will have completely disintegrated than that it will have taken over the region. It may be at its peak now, not presenting the path of things to come.
Posting from a beautiful hotel in downtown Lake Placid, NY…
Timely post, Pat. At least the Aussies are preparing themselves.
Actually, the damage already put in place by the Obama administration will yield the results predicted by Australia, and worse. They haven’t taken into account oil through the Caucasus, the nuclear threat of Iran and North Korea, and the advancement of nuclear weapons by terrorist groups worldwide.
Or the advancement of Islam worldwide, where in 25 years the UK will be 40% Muslim. The fastest growing religion in the world, with 4% of American Muslims thinking Bin Laden did the right thing, and a full 26% completely apathetic to the war on terror ( uh, er, the war on “enemy combatants” I guess).
The picture may be a whole lot bleaker than that predicted by the Aussies. That we are being moved to a liberal socialistic society at breakneck pace is particularly worrisome. That terrorist cells are alive and well and plotting against us throughout the world is worrisome. That our kids and grandkids are going to inherit the debt spawned by a corupt democratically led House, Senate, and White House is worrisome.
Have no fear, we have experienced and great Americans out there running the show:
– Hillary, that incredibly talented and world-wise diplomat. Why, she even rode on a helicopter with Sinbad, and had tea and crumpets in the White House courtyard with Benazir Bhutto.
– Rahm Emmanuel, who will get his way or send someone a dead fish.
– Tim Geithner, who we DESPERATELY needed just 3 short months ago. Why, this guy is a self-proclaimed expert at Turbo-Tax, right?
– Obama himself, who will save us by seeking out and having a palaver with those “moderate” Taliban in this world. Say, did he find any yet?
I caught the same article as Pat did, and I had to think of how prescient Australia is. Clearly, it was a good point that Pat raised, whom I consider a prudent observer.
I doubt whether “Americana” (qualified definition of mine) sees Australia as more than a source for actors and the home of cuddly bears.
It would be well to consider Australia’s dynamic in reflection of our own in terms of 1890’s to 1955. (Of course the texts that defined American dynamics have been either burned by teachers’ unions or censored by organizations once funded by business leaders and now run by revanchist liberals. How much fundng has been lost to reparations, I don’t know.)
Australia is well guided and prudent in its domestic security as well. They have followed the intelligence patterns of the UK, and with the exceptions of some immigrant Islamics, have held the line of rule of Australian Law (?).
As they have developed so well, and likely will contionue to, they are most likely aware of the jealousies they incur. The Phillipines, Indonesia and Malay (states) above them, and lieing in the flight patterns to their other immediate trading partners, China, India, Japan and South Korea, their concern is real.
And, like many US citizens, they may be concerned about an ally who governs as suits his vanity rather than his country’s safety. I’d be going for more 3% incremental increase on their defense budget.