Nate Silver got it right about Obama in 2012 using math. Everyone pilloried him and he came out on top, so whatever he says about 2014 is worth listening to. Seriously. Unlike 2012, his prediction is good news for those who want our nation to avoid collapse under the weight of the destructive absurdity of the left. Let’s hope he’s right this time, too. Read his whole column, there are graphs at the end.
Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup
This weekend’s announcement by the former governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, that he would not seek that state’s Democratic nomination for Senate represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber.
The G.O.P.’s task will not be easy: the party holds 46 seats in the Senate, and the number will very probably be cut to 45 after a special election in New Jersey later this year. That means that they would need to win a net of six contests from Democrats in order to control 51 seats and overcome Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s tiebreaking vote. Two years ago at this time, Republicans faced what seemed to be a promising environment and could have won the Senate by gaining a net of three seats from Democrats and winning the presidency. Instead, Mitt Romney lost to President Obama, and the G.O.P. lost a net of two Senate seats…
A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.
I’ve learned to believe it when I see it…
Amen, Foreverautumn! And I’m not sure 51 really matters given the squishy nature of Republicans these days.
” Hope deferred makes the heart sick.” Proverbs 13:12
Well I hope that Mr. Silver is correct in his assessment, but as Foreverautumn I will believe is when I see it. I am very concerned about our country and all that has occurred since Obama took office and the Republicans not doing anything to stop the liberal agenda, but what I am most concerned about at the present time is my State going blue. I travel extensively throughout the state of Texas and with the exception of the rural areas the liberals are “everywhere” thanks to Governor Perry going all over the country inviting everyone to come to Texas.
It is good that he has brought a lot of employers to the state, but with that being said he has also brought ten’s of thousands liberals to the state whom have also brought their liberal agenda and philosophy with them and will vote democrat.
I speak to many Conservative’s in my travels and they all share the same concerns, that Texas is already purple and will turn blue especially if Hillary decides to run in 2016. In my district we lost a House Conservative seat in 2012 to a very liberal democrat, but there again the democrats campaign daily as so many of them are not working to move their liberal agenda.
The only good thing about this is that Tammy hopefully gets her city back as many of the thugs have moved to Texas.
Well I hope all TAMs have a wonderful day as I am off to Houston, Texas to deal with another former Los Angeles undocumented immigrant who has relocated to the great state of Texas.
Howdy TexasSnoopy,
Are you telling us that the Domestic Terrorist (Gangs) of California have moved to the Great State of Texas, where we have the Right to Defend ourselves both in the Household and on the Public Streets with Firearms, very much Unlike California?
Where Penitentiary Confinement and Executions are a certainty here, in the Great State of Texas, very much Unlike California?
Well, I say “Bring It”, since Liberal Garbage always end up on Conservative door steps anyway.
I think Snoopy’s point is that all the things you admire about TX may not stay that way for long if the trend continues. Everything you say is good about TX governance is dependent on the majority voting to keep those policies in place.
I’m from CO, and for as long as I could remember, we were more of a split state, generally voting for Democrats for Gov. and Senate, but Republican for most of the state offices. We had a brief period where Republicans were resurgent, with them being elected to Gov. and Senate, but since ’06 that’s flipped. We are now almost solidly a blue state, with Democrats elected to Gov. and Senate, and majorities in the state House and Senate. Republicans just regained a slight majority of CO’s seats in the House in Congress in ’12. The Democrats have enacted laws that have really gotten conservatives riled up here, particularly on gun control. They’ve put a proposal on the table to mandate 50% renewable power from co-ops in rural counties. Rural areas are getting the crap beat out of them from state and county gov’t’s. Weld and 5 other counties in Eastern CO were considering seceding from the state in response, but it sounds like that effort fizzled quickly. The main push seems to have been to legalize gay marriage (which is no big deal to me), which they just did a month or two ago. The main thing I object to is the gun control crap. It’s a meaningless gesture to “respond” to the massacre in Aurora. The kind of empty, symbolic gesture that is the Democrats’ stock and trade. The Democrats we used to have were more respectable than this, because they believed in having some substance behind their polices. These days they just have a dogmatic belief in political correctness.
It must be heartbreaking to now live in what the Liberals & RHINOs have brought onto such a beautiful state.
In Texas there is still a lot of Freedom Fighters left, even though the “seat” of our state lies in the Liberal city of Austin, we Conservatives are Fighting through actively Voting/’Word-of-Mouth’/Financially, etc… while going to school and or work.
We are not done.
knowing the GOP’s luck, this will be the one time Nate Silver is wrong.
I believe Nat’s mathematical predictions could come true with a certain catalyst in place, ie Sarah Palin and Liz Cheney running for Office (Senate). Senator Cruz is to new to have coat tails yet.
Has Nat factored in NSA working with the Democratic Party for 2014, as they have done in previous federal elections?
Factoid: Senator Cornyn(Texas) was not re-elected(or declined to run again?) as National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman(Not a surprise since he failed during the election cycles of 2010 and 2012 to ‘git ‘er done: in fact LOST 2 seats in the Senate in 2012) and now the Chairman is Jerry Moran, the Junior Senator from Kansas. So remember that name, Jerry Moran, when it comes to discussions about
having a Republican majority elected in 2014. He’s got the ball now…
posted 7/16 433pm Texas[Cruz Country]Time
I worked under Senator Cornyn and his lack of leadership skills does not surprise me. He is a Rhino who supported David Dewhurst, the Lt. Governor in the primaries against Ted Cruz and only backed Cruz after Dewhurst lost in the primaries. Just look at the way he has voted since he has been a senator, he only votes conservative when it is safe.
I read an article yesterday that Senator Cornyn has a Tea Party Challenger for his senate seat, Erick Wyatt who is an Iraqi war veteran.
Caution; Heavy Lifting on Capitol Hill.
“according to a schedule posted by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, the House will be in session a grand total of nine days in September — and five of those are shortened work days….The schedule says the House will meet six more days this month (three of them shortened), and then all of two days in August (one shortened)…. in October, when the House is scheduled to be in session a relatively grueling 14 days (six of them shortened). But lawmakers are set to meet just eight days in November (four shortened), and eight days in December (four shortened)….”
http://washingtonexaminer.com/heavy-work-load-house-will-meet-total-of-nine-days-in-september/article/2533260
Of course, this might be helpful in preventing amnesty.