This is the new Quinnipiac poll released today showing Trump crushing Rubio 44%-28%, a whopping 16 points in Rubio’s home state, and as the machine always tells us, along with Ohio, a must-win state for the presidency.
Now, it’s clear Rubio is the new Establishment choice. There are many TAMs who love Rubio and think, despite his attachment to the Old Guard, that he can do a good job. As I’ve mentioned time and again, I will support whomever is the GOP nominee. That said, this poll reveals quite a bit.
First, it reinforces the RNC’s incompetence, which is what in large part cost us the last two presidential elections. They’re in some sort of magical thinking bubble that tells them things that just aren’t true, i.e. Rubio *will* win Florida. Before that it was Bush *will* win Florida, and Kasich *will* win Ohio. It’s that same tired “most electable” nonsense which is why we have President McCain and President Romney.
So this situation with Trump highlights the absurdity of RNC predictions.
This situation, of course, also reinforces what appears to be a Trump juggernaut, also indicated in Texas where Cruz is now *tied* with Trump. That was unthinkable just a few weeks ago. But winning does create momentum and Cruz’s 3rd place finishes in South Carolina and Nevada give the impression he’s in trouble.
If either Cruz or Rubio can be president, they should be able to face what’s happening and overcome it. We shall see. This is the test during a primary season.
I do think now what’s transpiring is beyond the usual playbook. The inability of the system itself to see beyond its navel has made it impossible for them to expect this or adjust to it. They had much warning, and decided to ridicule Tea Party instead of trying to understand it. They scratched their heads at the firing of Eric Cantor. They thought *they* were responsible for the GOP takeover of the House and Senate. Will they at some point take credit for President Trump? Will they at least stop calling the base Brown Shirts?
This brings us to the debate tonight in Houston. Here’s an exchange on Twitter highlighting where I’m at:
So Rubio has no chance in Texas, and he has to be looking forward to Florida. He can do himself the most good by going after Trump. If he does so successfully and it sticks it benefits the still 60% who are against or unsure about Trump. Rubio also would elevate himself above Cruz who hasn’t been able to impact Trump.
But as I note in my Tweet, he may not do that because a) he’s afraid or too dumb to get it or b) he thinks it’s already over and wants to be VP.
How he behaves tonight will tell you if Rubio is toast or not.
Cruz, now tied with Trump in Texas, or he’s on his heels, must go after Trump. It’ll be interesting to watch.
All that said, I don’t think Trump, at this point, can be affected very much by attacks. We’ve seen his success isn’t based in the usual minutia; the voters see something larger looming over the nation and it requires unusual action. The only thing that would impact Trump at this point is if he has a major meltdown during a debate, or is exposed at ridiculing the electorate.
That could hurt him. I said on Fox Business yesterday that his abandoning the last Fox News debate before Iowa is what likely cost him that election. At first I thought it an evangelical rejection of him, but that was wrong. I’m convinced it was the rebuff the voters felt with his skipping that debate.
So if the voters feel Trump actually doesn’t care about them, and it’s all about him, that could hurt. But I don’t think that’s necessarily the case. I think, in his way, he does care.
So no matter who is your favorite, tonight will be revealing. I’ll be live-tweeting the debate, and TAM Chat will be open for members. Join us if you’re not a subscriber! It’s a great fellowship. You get access to things like TAM Chat and on-demand podcasts of Tammy Radio and other exclusive media. Click for more details here.
****************************************************
Nebraska’s primary is not until May 10. By that time, the candidate is almost always determined. My opinion and/or vote on the selection of the presidential candidate is irrelevant. It leaves me feeling strangely detached about the entire affair. Which is an odd place to be, when so many people are already so committed to one candidate or another. I’m still in observation mode, and not invested in any of them. What a unique and fascinating campaign season it’s been to date. I’ll be voting for the Republican candidate for President, whomever that turns out to be. At this point, its looking like The Donald. Who could have foreseen that; really, amazing.
And ours in California isn’t until JUNE! We may as well not even have one here!t
Colette,
Unfortunately CA’s Republican nominee typically doesn’t matter; that’s why I left CA as I got sick of living in a Democrat state. Tammy, I’ve heard you numerous times state that you will vote for whomever the Republican nominee is because you are a partisan for the country. I’m concerned that the country is already lost if Trump is the nominee. Let me explain to my fellow TAMs who support Trump. I’m a conservative, and I define conservatism as follows:
limited government, personal freedom that comes with personal responsibility.
I fear that Trump is running a campaign much like Obama’s where he isn’t truthful to the people who support him and his followers are projecting their own hopes and feelings onto him. I see the same leftist tactics used by Donald Trump that were used by Obama, and I see Trump as another Narcissist that we cannot afford 4 – 8 years of. If anyone is interested on my further thoughts of the similarities between these two campaigns, they can find my post on this subject at: https://constitutionalgov.wordpress.com/2016/02/22/projecting-yourself-onto-the-candidate/. Thank you to all TAMs for your time in hearing my thoughts. I’d like to work together to elect a constitutional conservative who in my opinion is Ted Cruz, and unfortunately if Trump is the nominee I won’t be voting for Trump.